Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Thursday, May 21, 2009

India's election methods: Is there an alternate method?

All through our life, we have to make choices. We make these choices based on certain needs and desires that we have. From small things like buying a toothpaste to larger things like picking up a job or buying a house for ourselves. But everytime we set out to exercise our choice, we have a backup plan, an alternative. With the toothpaste, it can be choice of brand or size of the tube, etc. With jobs, it can be choice of location, variation in job profile, salary, etc. The bottom line is that we always have a plan laid out- if this isn't available, then I'll settle for that.

In my previous post, I mentioned how candidates who have secured around 33% votes have been declared winners. Despite the fact that around 67% of the people who cast their votes, have done so against the winning candidate. This scenario should actually call for a tweak in the election system that is being followed currently. There are suggestions of a US-style run-off, but this would mean conducting two elections and it would happen across many constituencies. This, would further increase the expenditure towards elections and the already low turnout, would reduce further if there are back-to-back elections.

Another option, that is being used in Australia and in some cities in the US, is called the instant run-off. This option is similar to the scenario I mentioned in the first paragraph. In this scenario, people would indicate a preference of candidates in decreasing order. Instead of having to indicate preferences for all candidates, it can be restricted to indicating three preferences. In some constituencies of India, there are more than forty candidates contesting, which would turn off people from voting as they would have to indicate those many preferences. Suppose there are four candidates in the fray for a particular seat. This indication of preferences can be optional if needed. So, if a voter need not indicate his/her 2nd or 3rd preference. A voter's voting preference can be as seen in the table below.


CandidateChoice 1Choice 2Choice 3
AYNN
BNYN
CNNN
DNNY


Thus, the voter indicates that A is his 1st choice, B his 2nd and D his 3rd.

When the results are being processed, it can be done in the following manner. First look at the number of votes, each candidate has received as first preference. If any candidate has received more than 50% of the votes polled, he/she can be straight away declared as the winner. If any candidate does not secure more than 50% votes, then the top three candidates are taken and then count the number of votes each received as 2nd preference. Now, add the votes each of these received as 1st preference and 2nd preference in the following manner-

votes for a candidate = (votes as 1st choice) + m*(votes as 2nd choice)

where, 0.5<m<1. A reasonable choice can be m=0.75.

total votes = total votes as 1st choice + m*(total votes as 2nd choice)

Total votes as 2nd choice imply the number of voters who have polled for a candidate as their 2nd choice. This candidate need not be amongst the top three. This choice would eliminate those voters who haven't indicated a 2nd or 3rd choice of candidates. Fractional votes, if any, should be rounded off to the next highest integer.

At the end of this round, if a candidate secures more than 50% votes, he/she should be declared winner. If not, again take the first two and add the votes each secured as 3rd choice in the following manner-

votes for a candidate = (votes as 1st choice) + m*(votes as 2nd choice) + n*(votes as 3rd choice)

where, n=0.5. At this point, the person with the maximum number of votes will have to be declared winner. No matter if he/she has secured more than 50% votes. This is one of the flaws of the system. But, this would still reduce the instances where the winner is the person who has secured just 33% of the votes. There would be more people who would have the winning candidate as one of their preferred choice, rather than having nothing more than a yes/no to say.

A question that may arise here is the difficulty in asking people to do so. Many people may frown at the need to indicate three choices. In every system, a change from status-quo meets some resistance. But, educating the masses can certainly help us overcome this hurdle. It happened when EVMs were introduced. It will happen again if a new system is introduced. But, if the benefits exceed the troubles taken, then time and efforts should definitely be involved in this. As for the technology, we have a large pool of engineers who can be employed on developing systems that can handle such algorithms. Like the EVMs, this to can be developed with indigenous technology and manpower.

Caution: This is a proposed system or process. Like every man-made system or process, this too may have its faults. And like every other system or process, it can be improved till the point it is replaced by a better one.
India's election methods: Is there an alternate method?SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Monday, May 18, 2009

Elections 2009: Do results really reflect ground reality?

The Great Indian Political League 2009 threw a lot of surprises. These surprises surprised even those who caused the surprises. Before and during the elections every analyst was describing the kind of surprise that will be witnessed in these elections. After the results, they are now trying to explain why those surprises didn't occur. In this era of "breaking news" syndrome, the media tries to keep churning stories upon stories. The constant bombarding of varied news content doesn't leave time for the common man to sit back and analyse the data peacefully. And therefore, we believe the media most of the time. Being a Ph.D. student most people, from my relatives, friends and even people who do not know what a Ph.D. is, believe that I have all the time in the world. So, it doesn't do harm to keep that belief intact. Just as we like to believe that the Congress, SP and RJD are secular, but BJP is communal. So, I took some time off and decide to dig a little bit about the result. This is my analysis of the election results.

Let us accept one fact that most of the media in India is pro-Congress, rather anti-BJP. That is why the media kept playing about Narendra Modi and his connection with the Gujarat riots. I remember a news channel advertisement, where it was providing snippets of an interview with NaMo, that was to be broadcast later. The snippets kept repeating the interviewer's question on the riots to NaMo and NaMo's brushing aside the question. Now, if this snippet is shown in every break up to hours before the full telecast, imagine the effect it will have on the viewer. Remember, till now no court has ever proved that NaMo is guilty, nor is there any judgement which states that NaMo is hindering the investigations. But, NaMo is guilty until proven innocent. On the other hand, the Congress is treated softly by the media. No demolishing of the Congress for giving tickets to Sajjan Kumar and Jagadish Tytler. Just see how softly Barkha Dutt interviewed Priyanka Gandhi. Nor did the Prime Minister's statement about Ottavio Quattrochi receive enough coverage and demolition that it deserved. So, the media was involved in biased reporting.

Now, coming to the analysis of the results. First, the voter turnout was around 58% over India as a whole. So, let us forget the other 42%. Most of them deserve to be stuck with the MPs that came through. But, as the media claims, have people really elected for stability? Recounting Navjyot Singh Sidhu's Sidhuism, "Statistics are like bikinis, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital." To support this, I'm now giving the case of two constituencies here, one where the Congress was elected and the other where its ally the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was elected.

The first one is Mumbai North. Sanjay Nirupam of the Indian National Congress (INC) defeated Shri Ram Naik of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Mr. Nirupam polled 255157 votes, whereas Mr. Naik polled 249378 votes. The difference between the winning and losing candidate: a mere 5779 votes. The total votes polled in Mumbai North were 683975. So, percentage-wise Mr. Nirupam got 37.31% of the votes. Which means, a whopping 62.69% of the voters rejected Mr. Sanjay Nirupam.

The second is Mumbai North East. Mr. Sanjay Patil of the NCP polled 213505 votes, while the runner up, Mr. Kirit Somaiyya of the BJP polled 210572 votes. The difference: a mere 2933 votes. Here, the total votes polled were 667904. Percentage-wise, Mr. Patil got 31.96% votes, lesser vote percentage than Mr. Nirupam. In this case, 68.03% of the voters rejected Mr. Patil.

These may appear selective statistics, but then all over India, there have been many constituencies, even the prestigious Sivganga constituency, where such close contests have been witnessed. So, how much value does statements "Mandate rejection of caste politics" and "A vote in favour of a new dawn" or "A thoughtful verdict for stability" hold? Since India's election is about first past the pole, there will be a large number of people who will reject this statement. At least those who voted against Messrs Nirupam and Patil would do so.

In this election the Indian voter has just showed how many choices they have and that few candidates enjoy the support of the majority. If this was a mandate for the UPA, at least half of their elected MPs should have had secured more than 50% votes in their constituencies. But this is not the case as we see from the two examples above. I am sure that many of the elected MPs have come to the Parliament with similar vote shares. This is the flaw in our democratic system and we have to live with it until someone comes across with a better alternative.

P.S. All figures for votes and voting percentages have been compiled from the Election Commission of India's website.
Elections 2009: Do results really reflect ground reality?SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Monday, April 27, 2009

Missing Raj Thackeray's main message

Everytime the media reports about Raj Thackeray's speeches, it doesn't forget to highlight his "tirade" against the UPites and Biharis. Everybody, whether they are print, news, or other electronic ones. The other parties, like the Congress, RJD, SP, BSP, etc. too point out at the "danger" Raj Thackeray poses and asks the UPites and Biharis to unite against him. Congress goes a step ahead and asks the nation to unite against his "regionalism".

What nobody tries to address is the serious issues that he has raised. One is about bogus ration cards. He displayed those in Pune, and again in Mumbai. Yet, no party is saying anything about tackling this issue seriously. In Pune, he reeled off statistics obtained from the employment exchange, from where less than 10% of the applicants had got jobs during the period 2006-2008. This was a period of economic boom. What was the employment exchange doing? Most of those who apply to the employment exchange are locals. Why didn't they get jobs? I'm not asking for a success rate of 90% for the employment exchange, but isn't < 10% an abysmal figure? Why has nobody in the media given this any importance? He is taking the governments of the day and previous ones to task with data obtained from government sources and what is available in public domain. Yet, this received nothing more than a passing mention.

About his tirade against UPites and Biharis. Please give it a thought. Mulayam Singh, Mayawati and Amar Singh come down to Maharshtra and say that they will fight it out for the "north-Indians". Laloo says some arbit stuff against the people of Maharashtra. But back home, in their state, they do nothing to generate employment for these people. Mayawati, instead of spearheading industrial development, proposes reservation in the private sector too. She goes on building some parks with giant sized statues of Ambedkar, Kanshiram and herself. She blocks the rail-coach factory, just because it is located in Rae-Bareli, a rival's constituency. Laloo Yadav has been of no good for Bihar. 15 years of his misrule has brought Bihar down to its knees. It is only with Nitish Kumar that Bihar is slowly recovering. So, this asymmetrical development has led to large scale urban migration. This is the hidden message that Raj is trying to give. And we are missing it and getting lost in his theatrics.
Missing Raj Thackeray's main messageSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Modern day Tanaji Malusare

Everyone of us (in India, especially those in Maharashtra) have heard about Tanaji Malusare. Tanaji was in the midst of his son's wedding Raiba, when Shivaji Maharaj called him to lead the forces to capture the fort Kondana. While his guests and family members persuaded him from not going and enjoy the festivities, Tanaji decided against it and said the now famous dialogue- "आधी लगीन कोंडाण्याचे, मग रायबाचे", meaning capturing the fort Kondana is more important than Raiba's wedding. This just gives us a feeling of the sense of duty that Tanaji had. Where his duty towards the nation, his king takes priority over everything else.

Cut to 2009. Election season in India. Central and state government officers and staff are summoned for election duty. Of those, many try to excuse themselves from the duty by giving some reason or the other. However, Deputy Collector N. P. Jadhav of the suburban collectorate, is an exception. He not only took up the duty, but also postponed his son's wedding, which was scheduled on 22nd April to 3rd May, so that it doesn't clash with his election duty. Of course, his family isn't too happy with his decision, but then Shri Jadhav says "Duty comes first". Too many similarities between Tanaji Malusare and N.P. Jadhav. Of course, Shri Jadhav doesn't have to fight a battle, but then sense of duty towards the nation overrides everything else. Shri Jadhav is today's Tanaji in many senses. A welcome news and probably signs of change, in times where elections are looked upon as a burden by both the officers, as well as eligible voters. A pity that the other newspapers haven't published this story, at a time when locked up dogs take up half-a-page of main stream newspapers.

To those who read this blog: Please spread this story as it demonstrates that there are officers who still value their duty towards the nation.
Modern day Tanaji MalusareSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Monday, April 13, 2009

The Samajwadi Party Manifesto: A joke or opportunity

I haven't been able to read the Samajwadi Party's manifesto. Whatever I could gather is from reading about it on various news websites. What I gather from there, is that they are against use of English language, machines and computers. With an after thought, Mulayam Singh added that the party will push for use of regional language in education, administration and judiciary.

It is nice to know if they are going to seriously try to do that. We need to promote use of regional languages in education atleast at primary level. Even administrative and government activities should make use of functional regional language. I mean, if words need to be borrowed from English, do that, but write those in regional script. We tend to idealise the West in everything. Even there, their primary and secondary education is in the native language. Germans, French, Italians, Spaniards, they all take their primary education in their native language. Towards the east, Japanese and Koreans to learn their elementary science in their native language. Nothing has stopped them from becoming scientific and engineering superpowers. The Japanese cars and electronics, German engineering and efficiency, Italian designs, Korean electronics are admired world over, even as they fumble with their English language.

Some other parts of the manifesto (e.g. avoiding mechanisation, removing computers) are objectionable, but this one is surely worth giving a try.

As I said, I have not read the manifesto and I wrote this article based on what was available in the media. Now, Indian media is definitely not famous for its neutral reporting!
The Samajwadi Party Manifesto: A joke or opportunitySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend